Print

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of April 21, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • NG '25 prompt-month NYMEX settled at $3.02 per MMbtu, down $.23/MMbtu, on Monday, April 21.
  • WTI '25 prompt-month crude oil settled at $63.08 per barrel, down $1.60 per barrel on Monday, April 21.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Bearish

  • Prompt NYMEX natural gas settled at $3.02 per MMbtu, down $.23/MMbtu on Monday, April 21.
  • Generally, weather is more or less seasonal for this time of year.
  • Tariffs and uncertainty are having some impact on the natural gas market, but low seasonal demand coupled with strong production are the main drivers.
  • Production of natural gas, year-to-date is 104.0 Bcf per day, versus 101.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Electric power generation demand for gas, year-to-date, averaged 32.2 Bcf per day versus 30 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Residential/commercial demand for gas year-to-date averaged 36.8 Bcf per day versus 27.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • LNG exports year-to-date averaged 15.4 Bcf per day versus 12.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Natural gas strip pricing for 2026 through 2030 is: $4.00, $3.74, $3.59, $3.47, $3.37 per MMbtu respectively.

Crude Oil - Neutral/Bearish

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $63.08/bbl, down $1.60 per barrel.
  • Some progress was announced in US-Iran talks regarding a nuclear deal.
  • Concerns over tariffs continue to pressure crude pricing down.
  • General liquidity in the crude market was diminished for the Easter Holiday leading to some volatility early this week.
  • Reuters reports U.S. crude oil inventories declined last week.
  • Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC there are no signs that the U.S. is close to a recession.
  • The International Energy Agency downgraded 2025 oil demand growth on escalating trade tensions.

Economy - Neutral

  • Trump renews call for a rate cut, Slams Fed Chair, The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • Global growth to slow amid trade war, but recession unlikely, IMF Head says.
  • China has warned countries against making trade deals with the U.S. that could hurt Beijing's interests.
  • South Korea is gearing up for high-level trade negotiations with the U.S. this week.
  • Equities markets continue to be under pressure.
  • Gold hit a record high.
  • The next round of economic reports regarding jobs, unemployment, hourly earnings, and labor participation rate will be published May 2.

Weather - Neutral

  • A relatively cool period in the eastern two thirds of the country will give way to a general warm-up next week.
  • The warm up with take away any latent heating load in the north, but will provide a boost of air-conditioning load in the South, Southeast, and Southwest.
  • The American Model is forecasting a cool-down in the Middle of May for the eastern two thirds of the country.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending April 11, 2025 are 1,846 Bcf; an injection of 16 Bcf was reported for the week ending April 11, 2025.
  • Gas inventories are 74 Bcf below the five-year average and 480 Bcf less than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Apr. 17, 2025*
Prices reflect week ending Apr. 17, 2025*

* Futures markets were closed on Friday 4/18.

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices reversed course and traded higher over the past week despite the continued tumbling in natural gas prices.  Strong natural gas production, weak demand, lower LNG feedgas and talk of a recession continues to weigh on natural gas prices, but forward power prices were higher due to big power procurements this time of year.  The current weather model runs picked up some cooler changes in the overnight models, keeping the cold air farther north and limiting some of the early season heat. This brings a Goldilocks pattern that is neither too hot nor too cold, but just right.  The power price futures in the Mid-Atlantic region, for the 2026-2030 terms, were 3% higher over the past week but still -2% lower over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in West Hub is averaging $48.71/MWh, which is 5% higher than March’s average thus far for April.  
  • Murphy Calls for Federal Investigation of PJM Capacity Market - Governor Phil Murphy sent a letter to FERC this week asking the agency to investigate whether PJM’s “exorbitant price increases” in the 2025/26 capacity auction were the result of market manipulation.  Murphy states that “billions of dollars in excessive costs for consumers are the direct result of fundamental flaws in PJM’s capacity market and were foreseeable and preventable.”  Murphy asks FERC to order its enforcement unit to investigate the prior auction and closely monitor the conduct of upcoming auctions.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices reversed course and traded higher over the past week despite the continued tumbling in natural gas prices.  Strong natural gas production, weak demand, lower LNG feedgas and talk of a recession continues to weigh on natural gas prices, but forward power prices were higher due to big power procurements this time of year.   The current weather model runs picked up some cooler changes in the overnight models, keeping the cold air farther north and limiting some of the early season heat. This brings a Goldilocks pattern that is neither too hot nor too cold, but just right.  Power price futures in the GLR for the 2026-2030 terms were 5% higher over the past week, but still -2% lower over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is averaging $21.71/MWh, which is -15% lower than March’s average, while those index averages in AdHub are priced at $47.98/MWh or 19% higher than last month.  In Michigan, the month-to-date, day ahead average settlement price is $38.53/MWh or is 3% higher than March’s average, while that price in Ameren is currently averaging $29.57/MWh or is -4% lower, month-over-month.
  • Brattle Recommends Changes to PJM’s Capacity Market as Part of the Quadrennial Review - PJM has been working with the Brattle Group to prepare for the tariff-required quadrennial review of PJM's Variable Resource Requirement (VRR or demand) curve and associated input parameters.  On 4/11, Brattle released a recommendation to replace the Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE) with a "Reference Price" representative of multiple potential reference resources rather than a specific resource.  The recommended RTO Reference Price is $350/MW-day (other area Reference Prices shown below) with simplified annual updates indexed to the Consumer Price Index and fleetwide Unforced Capacity between review periods. Brattle also recommends adopting a Marginal Reliability Impact (MRI) approach for the VRR curve and proposed two potential variations with the cap of the curve at either 1.75 or 1.5 times the Reference Price.  Other recommendations include restoring Base Residual Auctions to a three-year forward period by the auction for the 2030/31 delivery year, transitioning to a sub-annual capacity construct with at least two seasons, and enhancing the Reliability Backstop by updating the “investigations provision” to trigger in any shortfall and to review whether current backstop procurement mechanism is sufficient to address reliability risks.  PJM and stakeholders will discuss recommendations and members will vote on potential changes this summer for implementation in the auction for the 2028/29 delivery year.  PJM must file any changes at FERC before 10/1.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • ISO New England has released its Spring 2025 Regional System Plan update, detailing approximately $421 million in transmission reliability investments planned through 2028. Five upgrades have been placed into service in recent months, with 18 active projects currently underway, including six under construction. The majority of these active projects are located in Massachusetts (9) and Maine (6). Since 2002, ISO New England's power system planning—one of its three essential functions—has enabled $13 billion in transmission investment, resulting in the completion of 879 project components. In addition to their primary aim of enhancing reliability, some projects have reduced transmission system congestion and prepared the grid for a cleaner future.
  • FERC Accepts NYISO Tariff Revisions - Last week, FERC accepted tariff revisions filed by the New York ISO in January authorizing the collection and allocation of costs associated with potential import duties on electrical energy from Canada. The new tariff provisions were made effective as of March 1, 2025, subject to two conditions: NYISO must  submit an informational filing upon receiving federal guidance confirming its authority to collect and remit duties; and, NYISO must submit informational filings every six months if and when it starts payment of import duties.  It remains uncertain whether electrical energy imported from Canada falls under the new import duties imposed by the Trump Administration. 
  • Trump Administration Moves to Halt New York Wind Farm - United States Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has ordered a halt to construction on the Empire Wind Project, which boasts a combined capacity of approximately 2 GW off the coast of Long Island.  The action stems from concerns the Biden Administration had approved the project without conducting sufficient analysis.  Governor Kathy Hochul criticized this move by the Trump Administration, defending the federally permitted project as vital for the state's clean energy initiatives.  Last month, Empire announced the commencement of subsea rock installations for the 810 MW Empire Wind 1 project.  Developed by Equinor within the U.S. Bureau of Offshore Energy Management Lease Area, Empire Wind is anticipated to achieve commercial operations by 2027.  Both Empire Wind 1 and 2 have secured long-term power offtake contracts from the New York State Energy Research Development Authority.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The LA Basin, Central Valley and coastal cities will see temperatures trend normal through midweek then shift to slightly below normal through the weekend. This is largely the story with the DSW cities that will trend slightly above normal for the same time period but without bringing any large departures to the mix. Temperatures overall continue to look on the mild side for much of the West throughout the next couple of weeks reinforcing this is the lowest demand time of year. Any notable amplification in the current weather pattern looks minimal through the remainder of the month and even during the first week of May, limiting the chances of extreme temperatures.
  • SoCalGas’s pipeline operations team is firing on all cylinders as another update to the maintenance schedule was posted on Friday afternoon, this time with both transportation and storage being impacted. The reduced capacity is associated with the North Zone, Needles/Topock Area with some help from Kern River/Mojave Kramer Junction receipt point. The race to refill the storage caverns within SoCal Gas will be in play between now and then and the market conditions should allow for such. The risk come winter is for a cold start like 2022, which saw the entire West withdrawal molecules at a high clip while the transport volume into SoCal Gas’s system was reduced due to maintenance work. This latest evolution of the maintenance season was also delivered into a closed trading environment on a Friday, but did not carry through to Monday prices in the same way. Last week we saw summer and winter basis prices jump higher when trading resumed on Monday also lifting power prices and this sentiment carried into Tuesday. Yesterday’s trading reaction was subdued, and we saw basis and power prices drop for Q3 and winter; but that could be attributed to an overall tone which was highly negative for the day in the broader commodity and equity markets. This weekend was filled with several High operational flow order (OFO) postings in SoCalGas territory as heating and power gen demand leaves a surplus of molecules lying around the room.
  • The CAISO grid will continue to experience the fallout from solar generation pumping hard into a lifeless demand environment. Day Ahead and Real Time index settlements over the weekend were filled with prices that fell deep into negative territory during the midday solar hours in both NP15 and SP15, which ultimately led to system-wide curtailments across the CAISO renewable landscape. Day Ahead auction results for Monday and Tuesday lifted the peak hour prices back above $0 MWh, but only into the $15 - $20 range for NP15 while SP15 could barely close above $10 per MWh as the output of all those panels in the desert weigh heavily on dispatchers in the south. Hydro supplies remain plentiful and as grid dispatchers look past the core of the melt season, the full reservoirs will be useful through the spring and summer months in terms of providing plenty of flex generation.

 

Stay up-to-date on the latest energy news and information:

Coming soon from Constellation Customer Insights: Help us provide you with greater service by completing our online study later this month. For a limited time, eligible customers can choose to accept an incentive for taking the time to provide feedback.

  • Energy Market Intel Webinar - Register for our next market update webinar on Wednesday, May 21 at 2 p.m. ET when the CMG team will provide insights on market factors currently affecting energy prices, such as weather, gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions.
  • Fortunato & Friends Webcast - Register for our next Fortunato & Friends webinar on Tuesday, May 6 at 1 p.m. ET featuring Constellation's Chief Economist, Ed Fortunato, and special guest, Nicole Perlroth, Venture Parter, Ballistic Ventures and former lead cybersecurity reporter at The New York Times.
  • Energy Terms to Know - Learn important power, gas and weather terms.
  • Sustainability Assessment - We invite you to complete a brief assessment that helps us learn where your company is in building and/or implementing a sustainability plan. Through these insights, Constellation can customize solutions to meet your needs.
  • Subscription Center - Sign up to receive updates on the latest market trends.

Questions? Please reach out to our Commodities Management Group at CMG@constellation.com.