Weekly Energy Industry Summary
Commodity Fundamentals
Week of January 5, 2026
By The Numbers:
- Prompt month (Feb 2026) natural gas settled at $3.52/MMbtu, down $.10 on Monday, January 5.
- The January 2026 natural gas futures contract settled at $4.69/MMbtu in late December (2025).
- Prompt month crude oil settled at $58.32/bbl, up $1 on Monday, January 5.
Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish
- The first half of January is coming in warm below the Mason-Dixon line and colder in the northern tier.
- Month-to-date natural gas production averaged 109.5 Bcf per day versus 103.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
- Month-to-date gas demand for power generation averaged 32.7 Bcf per day versus 35 Bcf per day for the same period last year reflecting a warmer start to January 2026 than last year.
- Month-to-date demand for gas for residential and commercial customers averaged 41.6 Bcf per day versus 46.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year, again, reflecting the first week of January 2026 being warmer on a population weighted heating-degree-day basis than last year.
- LNG exports month-to-date averaged 18.7 Bcf per day versus 15.0 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
- Export of gas to Mexico month-to-date averaged 4.8 Bcf per day versus 5.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
- This week versus the same week last year, production of natural gas is up 5.5 Bcf per day while demand is off 5.3 Bcf per day; This gap in the supply/demand balance has moved pricing to the downside to open the year.
- The weather will be the primary driver of natural gas over the next several weeks.
Crude Oil - Neutral/Bearish
- The U.S. extracted Venezuela's Maduro and sent him to New York to stand trial.
- Venezuelan crude oil production accounts for less than 1% of global crude output, thus, the general effect on pricing action has been limited. Additionally, there is ample spare production capacity in OPEC to absorb any effect of potentially lost production via Venezuela.
- Major unrest in Iran is reported on numerous news and social media platforms.
- NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $58.32/bbl., on Monday, January 5, up $1.0.
- The 2026 consensus crude oil price forecast inclusive of Citibank, JP Morgan, EIA and others is approx., $55/bbl.
Economy - Neutral
- The U.S. economy grew at a strong annualized rate of 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, widely exceeding expectations.
- Consumer spending was strong in the third quarter, exports were up, and imports were down.
- Consumer spending on healthcare, travel and recreational goods were up.
- Government outlays were up with an emphasis on defense spending increases.
- The pace of fixed investment, particularly in residential construction slowed in Q3.
Weather - Neutral/Bearish
- A generally mild pattern this week will cool off following a cold front that brings some below-normal temperatures from the Rockies into the south, but the lack of cold-air connection to Canada limits the impact of this front. The model's trend toward a colder pattern in the 11-15 day range, with the operational models being colder than their respective ensembles and AI models.
Weekly Natural Gas Report:
- Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending December 26 are 3,375 Bcf; a withdrawal of 38 Bcf was reported for the week ending December 26.
- Gas inventories are 58 Bcf above the five-year average and 55 Bcf less than the same time last year.

Weekly Power Report:
Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary
- The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices fell significantly over the past month, along with natural gas prices, as the market went from dealing with one of the colder starts to December in years to where it is now with current forecasts continuing to shed heating demand over the next couple of weeks due to warmer than normal temperatures. US natural gas futures recently extended its losing streak for the fourth straight session, reaching its lowest price level since late October. Weather models experienced a double-digit loss in heating demand over the weekend, as cold air is in short supply this week, with much above normal to strong above normal temperatures expected across a large portion of the nation. Forward power prices over the past month for the 2026-2030 terms were -7% lower, on average, with an -11% decrease on the front of the price curve and a -6% decrease on the back of the curve (2029-2030). The final, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub for December 2025 was $68.70/MWh, which is $14.94/MWh or 28% higher than the prior month of November.
- PJM 2027/28 BRA Clears at the Cap but Falls Short of Target Reserve Margin - On 12/17, PJM announced the results of the 2027/28 Base Residual Auction (BRA). This was the second and final auction run under a price cap and floor implemented in response to a complaint by PA Governor Shapiro. The price cleared at the cap of $333.34/MW-day across the RTO. However, PJM failed to meet its target reserve margin clearing 6,623.2 MW UCAP below the RTO Reliability Requirement. PJM reported the auction cleared at a 14.8% Installed Reserve margin (IRM), 5.2 percentage points below the 20% target IRM. Under current rules, a shortfall greater than 1% for two additional BRAs will trigger a Reliability Backstop Auction. The resulting shortfall does trigger an investigation into the deficit and PJM will likely provide an update in January 2026 for stakeholder consideration. PJM also simulated auction results had the cap and floor not been in place. Prices would have cleared at $529.80/MW-day for the RTO with Dominion separating and clearing $542.83/MW-day (a $13.03 premium). Without the cap, the total reserve margin would have been 15.4%.
Great Lakes Electric Summary
- The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices fell significantly over the past month, along with natural gas prices, as the market went from dealing with one of the colder starts to December in years to where it is now with current forecasts continuing to shed heating demand over the next couple of weeks due to warmer than normal temperatures. US natural gas futures recently extended its losing streak for the fourth straight session, reaching its lowest price level since late October. Weather models experienced a double-digit loss in heating demand over the weekend, as cold air is in short supply this week, with much above normal to strong above normal temperatures expected across a large portion of the nation. Forward power prices over the past month for the 2026-2030 terms were -6% lower, on average, with a -10% decrease on the front of the price curve and a -6% decrease on the back of the curve (2029-2030). The final, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED for December 2025 was $40.40/MWh or was 9% higher than the prior month of November, while the final price in AdHub for the month was $49.41/MWh or was 4% higher than in November. In Michigan the final monthly settlement price for December averaged $49.37/MWh. or was 18% higher vs. November, while the final settlement price in Ameren averaged $43.69/MWh, or was 16% higher than November.
- PJM 2027/28 BRA Clears at the Cap but Falls Short of Target Reserve Margin - On 12/17, PJM announced the results of the 2027/28 Base Residual Auction (BRA). This was the second and final auction run under a price cap and floor implemented in response to a complaint by PA Governor Shapiro. The price cleared at the cap of $333.34/MW-day across the RTO. However, PJM failed to meet its target reserve margin clearing 6,623.2 MW UCAP below the RTO Reliability Requirement. PJM reported the auction cleared at a 14.8% Installed Reserve margin (IRM), 5.2 percentage points below the 20% target IRM. Under current rules, a shortfall greater than 1% for two additional BRAs will trigger a Reliability Backstop Auction. The resulting shortfall does trigger an investigation into the deficit and PJM will likely provide an update in January 2026 for stakeholder consideration. PJM also simulated auction results had the cap and floor not been in place. Prices would have cleared at $529.80/MW-day for the RTO with Dominion separating and clearing $542.83/MW-day (a $13.03 premium). Without the cap, the total reserve margin would have been 15.4%.
Northeast Energy Summary
- During the week of December 15, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) released a draft Request for Proposals (RFP) seeking up to approximately 11.6 million MWh of zero-carbon energy resources. In its notice and call for comments, DEEP posed several questions, including whether procurement should include capacity in addition to energy and environmental attributes. The agency referenced its 2018 assessment, which concluded that the Millstone Nuclear Power Station could be “at risk of retirement” if costs rose or market prices fell, but noted that the energy landscape in New England has shifted significantly since then. Factors such as higher wholesale electricity prices, a tightened emissions cap under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), ISO-NE’s ongoing capacity accreditation efforts, and anticipated natural gas price increases have created more favorable economic conditions for nuclear power. As a result, DEEP stated that Millstone and other existing nuclear facilities in the region are no longer considered at risk of retirement. Under the draft RFP, all existing resources submitting bids must offer pricing that is low enough to serve as an effective hedge against projected wholesale energy and capacity market prices, ensuring affordability for Connecticut ratepayers. DEEP will accept comments on the draft RFP and related questions until January 9.
- Recently, the NYISO issued its final 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) identifying significant reliability risks for New York’s power grid over the next decade. The CRP aims to solicit solutions to any reliability needs identified in the 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment. NYISO will not solicit solutions as part of this CRP because the transmission security reliability needs in New York City have been resolved given a 200 MW reduction in projected system load. Looking forward, the CRP highlights three major challenges: rapid growth in large electricity loads (such as microchip manufacturing and data centers), an aging generation fleet, and a lack of new dispatchable generation resources. Notably, load growth is outpacing resource additions, which could result in reliability shortfalls of several thousand megawatts by 2034 if new dispatchable capacity is not developed. The grid is also shifting from a summer-peaking to a winter-peaking system, with winter peak demand projected to increase by over 15% by 2034. To address these risks, NYISO recommends accelerating resource development, preserving or replacing critical dispatchable assets, and building additional firm capacity to complement renewables and storage. The plan calls for a more comprehensive, forward-looking approach to reliability planning, including accounting for a wider range of outcomes, strengthening planning beyond emergency measures, and deploying strategies to address system voltage performance. NYISO will begin stakeholder discussions for the 2026 Reliability Needs Assessment in December 2025.
ERCOT Energy Summary
CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary
- The drought in California is over. Unless you’re a skier, in which case the snow drought lingers. Driven by La Niña conditions and cool water in the northeast Pacific, the jet stream was pushed south over the last few weeks into California which fed a pattern of atmospheric rivers that packed plenty of moisture but were too warm to form snow — and often melted what little managed to fall. The influx of rain topped off reservoirs in the state providing the fuel for CAISO operators to balance the intermittency of renewables over the course of the next few months. Failure to improve on the snowpack in the coming months will provide challenges to the system in the late spring and summer as the snow is effectively deferred storage. We're still on track for a brief round of cold later this week and into the weekend as a trough digs into the West. Colder impacts look focused from California into parts of the interior West and Rockies. Temperatures don't look all that extreme, but below normal.
- This week could see CAISO hydro gen numbers consistently above 3,000 megawatts. How much hydro the grid can absorb depends on the strength of demand (not much) and the volume of solar and wind hitting the grid (cloudiness will linger across SoCal for a couple days before peak solar conditions and higher generation numbers return late this week when the storm track shifts north). Wind and solar will have the largest impact on SP15 prices opening the traditional congestion gap for the peak period from NP15 settlements. Daily settlements for gas and power index buyers have been unremarkable as mild conditions have limited heating demand and the power grid is in fighting shape.
- California is a state of extremes with its performance typically found at the top or bottom of a ranking of states. A fun summary weather report for last year that caught our attention over the holiday break, the U.S. Lightning Report was released and is one of the few times you will find California’s performance wallowing in the middle of the pack.
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