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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of March 16, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $3.02/MMbtu, down $.11 on Monday, March 16.
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $3.12/MMbtu, on Monday, March 9.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $93.50/bbl., down $5.21 on Monday, March 16.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $94.77/bbl., on Monday, March 9.
  • TTF (EU LNG) prompt settled $17.16/MMbtu, up $.27. NBP (UK LNG) settled $17.23/MMbtu, up $.29.
  • JKM (Asia LNG) prompt settled at $19.28/MMbtu, up $.98.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • A strong cold front in the east raised demand in the residential/commercial sector giving support to the current pricing action.  The cold shot will be relatively short lived and has had limited market impact.  It's very hot in the west and southwest with mid-summer-like temperatures driving some air conditioning load in that region. 
  • Bearish near and mid term fundamentals are outweighing geopolitical concerns in the U.S. natural gas market.
  • Storage inventories will end the injection season reasonably close the five year average, and given the current production numbers, forecasts for refilling gas to a "near-full" volume by November 1 are the consensus.
  • Production, month-to-date, averaged 110.1 Bcf per day versus 105.3 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Power generation, month-to-date, averaged 30.3 Bcf per day versus 27 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Res/Comm demand, month-to-date, averaged 27.1 Bcf per day versus 31.6 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • LNG exports, month-to-date, averaged 19.6 Bcf per day versus 16.1 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Exports to Mexico, month-to-date, averaged 6.5 Bcf per day versus 5.9 Bcf per day; same period last year.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • U.S. prompt month crude (WTI) settled at $93.50/bbl., down $5.21.
  • The oil market will be extremely volatile and trade on breaking news hourly.
  • There are reports of a few tankers traversing the Straits of Hormuz under flagged vessels that Iran perceives as friendly.  There have been several attacks on shipping and consequential damage to several vessels over the past week.
  • The Straits of Hormuz are still bottled up and oil, refined products, and LNG are not freely flowing.
  •  Four million barrels per day of crude oil have been diverted away from the Persian Gulf via pipeline by the Saudis, and an additional million barrels per day of crude oil is diverted by UAE to the Gulf of Oman.  However, this still leaves 9-10 million barrels per day of crude oil, 5 million barrels per day of refined products, and 10 Bcf per day of LNG stranded in the Persian Gulf.
  • The IEA is working to release up to 400 million barrels of crude with about half of that amount able to get to market in the next 90 days.  The U.S. has announced a planned release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  These measures can be helpful in the short term, but do not address the mid and longer-term issue relative to open maritime passage of the Straits of Hormuz.

Economy - Neutral

  • Oil prices have surged during the past two weeks and prices at the pump have gone up 14% this week.  Thus far inflationary pressure relative to higher transport costs are limited; but if higher prices persist for months, that will have an effect on food and other goods and services relative to inflationary pressure. 
  • February's CPI report showed annual inflation steady at 2.4%.
  • The February jobs report showed a 92,000 loss; expectations were for 50,000 jobs gained.
  • U.S. equities markets are trading lower since the Iran war began.  The DJIA is down 3.7% to-date from its pre-war close.  The S&P 500 is down 2.3% and the Nasdaq is down 1% respectively from their pre-war close.

Weather - Neutral/Bullish

  • Winter holds on for a few more days in the East and lingers longer in the Northeast.  The West and Southwest are at record highs.  The Midwest/lower Midwest is breaking "comfortable on the warm side" and the south and southeast are warmer-than normal, but this means daytime highs in the high 60's and low 70's and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s in Atlanta.  These "above normal" outcomes in the south and southeast are very low on the energy consumption scale.  

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending March 6 are 1,848 Bcf; a withdrawal of 38 Bcf was reported for the week ending March 6.
  • Gas inventories are 17 Bcf less than the five-year average and 141 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Mar. 13, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Mar. 13, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged over the past week due to warming temperature forecasts, lower heating demand and possible early injections of natural gas into storage, despite a couple of cold shots that are expected over the next couple of weeks.  A line of severe storms crossing the East is being followed by much and strong below-normal temperatures. We will have a small break from the chill this weekend, but a couple of cold fronts are on the horizon. One will come through early next week, with another shown in the 11–15 day period.  This has brought a small heating-demand gain since last Friday.  Forward power prices for the 2027-2030 terms over the past week were unchanged overall, with slight -1% price decreases for 2029/30.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $47.81/MWh, which is -46% lower than February’s final settlement price average.
  • Virginia Moves on Re-entry into RGGI - This week, the Virginia legislature passed a bill (HB 397) that mandates the state’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), building on enactment last month of budget provisions authorizing state agencies to take steps to re-enter the program. Governor Spanberger is expected to sign the new bill and the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) will issue implementing regulations by May 2026.  Also this week, the Virginia Attorney General withdrew its appeal of the pending 2024 circuit court decision which had declared the prior withdrawal from RGGI under Gov. Youngkin as unlawful. To participate in future RGGI auctions, the Virginia DEQ also will need to re-sign the RGGI MOU and reestablish a contract with RGGI Inc. Given the timeline laid out in the enabling legislation, Virginia could participate as early as 6/3 auction.   

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged over the past week due to warming temperature forecasts, lower heating demand and possible early injections of natural gas into storage, despite a couple of cold shots that are expected over the next couple of weeks.  A line of severe storms crossing the East is being followed by much and strong below-normal temperatures. We will have a small break from the chill this weekend, but a couple of cold fronts are on the horizon. One will come through early next week, with another shown in the 11–15 day period.  This has brought a small heating-demand gain since last Friday.  Forward power prices for the 2027-2030 terms over the past week were -1% lower for most of the calendar years of the term except for 2028.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $30.86/MWh or is   -19% lower than February’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price in March is $43.22/MWh or is -31% lower than in last month.  In Michigan, the current month-to-date average is $38.06/MWh or is -28% lower than February, while in Ameren the March average is $29.56/MWh or is -32% lower than February’s average.
  • PJM Board Responds to RESA Regarding Uplift Costs; Promises to Review “Lessons Learned” from Fern - On 3/9, the PJM Board of Managers responded to a letter sent by the Retail Energy Supply Association (RESA) on 1/31 regarding uplift costs associated with Winter Storm Fern.  The Board emphasized the role conservative operations played in ensuring grid reliability during the extended cold weather event but acknowledged the impact significant uplift costs have on retail providers.  The Board noted that the Reserve Certainty Senor Task Force is expected to take up potential solutions to alleviate some of the drivers of uplift later this year.  The letter also indicated that PJM is undertaking a “lessons learned” review from the events of Winter Storm Fern and noted an intention to reduce uplift as one of its core areas of focus. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • ISO New England is working on three changes to the Pay for Performance (PfP) capacity market rules with the goal of filing the revisions at FERC in late June of this year. The first (ISO Balancing Ratio Presentation) would cap the Balancing Ratio at 1.0.  On January 22, FERC issued an order in Docket EL25-106 for ISO-NE to cap the Capacity Balancing Ratio at 1.0.  This would, when the Balancing Ratio is capped, impact the calculation and allocation of Performance Payments, possibly creating a deficit.  Consequently, the ISO proposes to change the allocation of a deficient balancing fund from Capacity Supply Obligation (CSO) resources to overperformers (i.e., lower the payment rate for overperformers).  The allocation of stopped losses will be separate.  Stopped losses will continue to be allocated pro-rata to CSO MW, consistent with the Commission’s order.  Furthermore, the ISO would eliminate the Capacity Performance Bilateral mechanism, citing the loophole it creates with (now) different performance payments rates as well as the fact it has been used by only one participant since the inception of PfP.  The ISO claimed this approach, if used for June 2025, would have yielded an effective payment rate close to $8,000/MWh (compared to the current $9,337/MWh rate).  Scarcity conditions that occur prior to acceptance of the compliance filing would be subject to resettlement if the Balancing Ratio exceeds 1.0.
  • The second proposal, ISO Performance Payment Rate (PPR), would lower the rate from $9,337/MWh to $3,500/MWh.  The ISO cited its 2022 PfP assessment finding that PfP (when the PPR was $3.500/MWh) materially improved resource performance and now draws the conclusion that this rate was incenting the desired resource behavior before reaching the $5,455 and $9,337 values.  The ISO also claims that this rate would decouple PPR from Net Cost of New Entry and Resource Adequacy Assessment model outputs, which may change under Capacity Auction Reforms – Seasonal/Accreditation.  This update would go into effect (immediately) after FERC approval, rather than prospectively with the next (uncleared) commitment period (2028-29).
  • The third proposal (External Transaction Sales) would charge system-backed exports the PPR during PfP events.  The ISO described system-backed exports as exports that are either (1) associated with a generator but exceed the generator’s energy and reserves provided, or (2) not associated with a generator.  This modification (closing this loophole) was first recommended by the External Market Monitor in its 2023 Assessment of ISO New England Annual Report.  The ISO is also considering removing system-backed exports from the Balancing Ratio calculation.  Currently they are considered part of load and consequently tend to (inappropriately) inflate the Balancing Ratio.  These charges would not be included in the resource’s negative capacity payments, which are limited by the stop-loss mechanism
  • On 2/27, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) released an internal cost analysis  indicating that implementing the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act as currently written would result in substantial cost increases for households, businesses, and manufacturers - particularly if compliance is achieved through a cap-and-trade - style system.  The analysis projects that carbon prices will begin at $120 per ton and rise to nearly $180 per ton, which is more than six times higher than recent market prices in California (under $28 per ton).  These elevated carbon prices are expected to drive significant downstream cost increases across the economy. By 2031, the program could increase gasoline prices by $2.23 per gallon, with moderate-income upstate households owning two gas vehicles and relying on oil heat facing more than $4,000 annually in added energy costs, even after accounting for rebates.  While the program could potentially generate approximately $28 billion in annual revenue, the memo concludes that the current emissions accounting framework and the rigid 2030 reduction target outlined in the law would impose “unpalatable” near-term costs on businesses and consumers.  This raises concerns regarding competitiveness, investment, and employment unless statutory modifications are introduced. New York's cap-and-invest program is currently being challenged in court after Governor Hochul paused the initiative in 2025, citing the need for further emissions data and affordability evaluations before establishing firm regulatory obligations. 
  • National Grid Ventures is evaluating options to repower its aging fleet of fossil fuel power plants on Long Island as reliability concerns grow amid rising electricity demand and delays in offshore wind development.  Many of the units, built in the 1960s and 1970s, remain critical to grid stability, as demonstrated during recent winter cold snaps, yet their age increases operational risk over time.  While New York’s climate law requires a zero-emission electric grid by 2040, the Hochul Administration is pursuing an “all of the above” strategy that includes an openness to limited repowering to maintain reliability, even as regulatory uncertainty continues to deter investment.  National Grid Ventures argues that clearer policy guidance is needed to advance any development, noting that repowering could proceed alongside existing operations and may remain economically viable with or without new gas pipeline capacity.  As the Long Island Power Authority begins its integrated resource planning process, repowering remains one of several options under consideration to ensure reliable and cost-effective electric service for Long Island ratepayers.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Records will be shattered. Normal temperatures will be a rare occurrence over the next two weeks due to a highly amplified pattern that will see existing daily record highs fall many days in a row across multiple cities with the monthly records being tied or broken in many places, not only for March, but for April as well. The most noteworthy highlight among this list are Phoenix and Las Vegas which are likely to absolutely shatter their all-time monthly max temperatures for March and tie the all-time max for April, not once but twice. Mid to upper-90s will be common across the LA Basin while Sacramento and San Francisco bake in the upper-80s. The high print in downtown LA on Friday looks to reach 98o F, which would be within a degree of the highest reading for the month set on March 29, 1879, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Low to mid-80s are also forecast for much of the interior West and Rockies – levels typically seen in June. Low temperatures are also expected to be quite warm—the forecast low of 71° in Las Vegas on Friday would tie the monthly record. From a population weighted cooling degree day (PWCDD) standpoint, the March 17-21 period is forecast to yield 26.8 (normalized) PWCDDs for the Pacific EIA region, far exceeding the previous record of 2.1 in 2004. While the record heat is likely to back down next week while the pattern will remain unseasonably warm across much of the West, a warmer than normal finish to the month and start to April is likely from California over into the Desert Southwest and up into the interior West and Rockies while a near to below normal lean is likely across the Northwest and Western Canada.
  • From a natural gas perspective, the supply stack consists of renewables and plenty of hydro and imports from adjacent regions. Did you notice how natural gas is missing from that supply stack? The weather forecast will push peak power demand to its highest levels of March as the CAISO forecast showing over 33 GW to be on the grid this week. This will assist the natural gas landscape where any sort of demand is welcome – maybe this will be enough to get PG&E city gate prices out of the $1.60ish per MMBtu rut they been mired in most of this month, and the SoCal gate may break back above $2.25. The headwind both city gate prices face is the excessive hydro gen coming out of the Pacific Northwest as the melt is occurring now while solar keeps the midday period off limits to any economic dispatchable thermal generation, and then just when the picture might improve, the battery fleet’s stomps on prices during the evening ramp. That said, the extreme nature of the forecast does suggest power demand will escalate which means that there should be some incremental demand spinning up a need for gas fired generators.
  • The conflict in the Middle East continues to grab the headlines and the Strait of Hormuz -- the chokepoint for all shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf – remains effectively shut. A handful of vessels are sailing through, with some hewing close to the Iranian coast – an indication of Tehran’s grip on the waterway. The escalation continues to push energy prices ever higher. Global benchmark Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel earlier today while WTI is steady in the mid-$90s at the time we went to press. While U.S. natural gas prices remain insulated from the conflict for now, the impacts to U.S. costs are starting to appear as US diesel and gasoline prices cracked $5 a gallon yesterday for the first time since December 2022. There is no line of sight to how long the actions between the parties will last nor does there seem to be an end in sight. Oil and gas prices have already rocketed higher in Europe. Expect U.S. energy prices to continue to slowly react to the upside.

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