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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of March 23, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $2.89/MMbtu, down $.21 on Monday, March 23.
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $3.02/MMbtu, on Monday, March 16.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $88.13/bbl., down $10.10/bbl., on Monday, March 23.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $93.50/bbl., on Monday, March 16.
  • TTF (EU LNG) prompt settled $19.30/MMbtu, down $.77. NBP (UK LNG) settled at $19.26/MMbtu, down $.85.
  • JKM (Asia LNG) prompt settled at $21.00/MMbtu, down $.71.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • Heat in the west wanes and flows warmer temperatures eastward.  The pattern is variable in the east, but trends seasonal and the south and southeast will see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with overnight lows in 50s -- a low heating demand and low air-conditioning demand scenario.
  • Year-to-date, natural gas production averaged 108.5 Bcf per day versus 103.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year, a gain on the supply side of 4.5 Bcf per day.  On the demand side, power generation year-to-date averaged 32.6 Bcf per day versus 32.4 Bcf per day for the same period last year, up 0.2 Bcf per day.  Residential/commercial demand year-to-date averaged 39.8 Bcf per day versus 44.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year, down 4.4 Bcf per day.  Industrial demand, year-to-date averaged 25 Bcf per day versus 25.6 Bcf per day, down 0.6 Bcf per day.  LNG exports averaged 19.5 Bcf per day, year-to-date versus 15.6 Bcf per day for the same period last year, a demand gain of 3.9 Bcf per day.  Exports to Mexico, year-to-date averaged 6.4 Bcf per day versus 6.3 Bcf per day for the same period last year.  The supply demand balance in natural gas, year-to-date; production up 4.5 Bcf per day -- demand down 0.6 Bcf per day.  

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • President Trump announced that Iran and the U.S. were engaged in talks to wind down the war, and crude futures sold sharply on the news, with WTI trading down $10.10/bbl., settling at $88.13/bbl.  There are many questions regarding the veracity of Trump's announcement as no counterparty on Iran's part was named, and social media responses from Iran disputed Trump's statement. As of this writing, WTI prompt-month crude is trading at $91.70/bbl., up $3.56.  
  • Qatar said last Thursday that there was "extensive damage" at its Ras Laffan LNG plant affecting 17% of Qatar's 10 Bcf per day of LNG production; the damaged portion of the plant may take 3-5 years to repair.
  • The Saudis have diverted 4 million barrels/day of crude oil via its east-west Yanbu pipeline away from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, but 9 million barrels per day of crude oil, 5 million barrels per day of refined products and 10 Bcf per day of LNG remain stranded behind the Straits of Hormuz.  
  • Extreme volatility remains.

Economy - Neutral

  • Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected and up 3.4% annually, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
  • Food prices were up 2.4% and energy was up 2.3%.
  • For fiscal year-to-date, The U.S. budget deficit totaled $1 trillion, about 12% lower than the same period last year as government revenues rose faster than spending.  Customs duties were $151 billion through the first five months of the fiscal year, up $113 billion versus the same period last year.
  • Job growth is slowing, unemployment is steady at 4.4%, the housing market is moribund, however capital investment is strong at 6% in 2025 and forecast at 5 to 6% in 2026.
  • Higher fuel and transport costs are a growing headwind to the U.S. economy and the global economy.

Weather - Neutral/Bearish

  • Heat in the West persists a few more days and begins to ease and move East.  The Eastern two thirds of the country will be variable with a few days of cool air followed by warm ups and the general trend favors warmer-than-normal, and relatively low heating and cooling demand. 

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending March 13 are 1,883 Bcf; an injection of 35 Bcf was reported for the week ending March 13.
  • Gas inventories are 47 Bcf  greater than the five-year average and 177 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Mar. 20, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Mar. 20, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged over the past week due to continued bearishness in the marketplace.  NYMEX natural gas futures settled lower this week, steered by bearish demand and supply signals despite mounting anxiety over the destruction of vital gas infrastructure in the Middle East.  The weather pattern remains variable, but warmer days outnumber chilly days. The East starts off chilly this week, then turns warmer midweek ahead of the next cold front, which cools temperatures to below normal this weekend. This is followed by another warming trend next week.  Forward power prices for the 2028-2031 terms over the past week were unchanged for the most part, with a slight 1% increase for 2027.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $48.30/MWh, which is -46% lower than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • PJM Touts Progress on Interconnection Reforms; Identifies Obstacles to Project Completion - On 03/16, PJM published an article outlining its view that recent interconnection reforms - shifting from a “first-come, first-served” approach to a “first-ready, first-served” process - have improved how new generation projects move through its interconnection queue. PJM also identified permitting obstacles and broader project development challenges as key factors affecting project completion timelines.   According to PJM, the revised process requires projects to be more mature in development and is intended to reduce delays by discouraging speculative applications.  PJM also notes that its updated “Cycle” process includes milestone requirements designed to improve queue discipline and move viable projects through the system more efficiently.  Under this framework, projects may be able to complete the interconnection process in roughly one to two years, depending on project impacts and required system upgrades.  The article states that PJM has completed interconnection agreements for 103 GW of projects since 2020, of which 23 GW have entered service.  Another 54 GW, however, remains delayed despite having cleared the interconnection process due to what PJM identified as challenges outside of PJM’s control.  PJM also highlighted its collaboration with Google and Tapestry, noting ongoing testing of a new AI-based tool, HyperQ, which is expected to streamline certain aspects of interconnection application evaluation.  PJM indicated it plans to share additional details as results are validated through continued analysis and benchmarking. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged over the past week due to continued bearishness in the marketplace.  NYMEX natural gas futures settled lower this week, steered by bearish demand and supply signals despite mounting anxiety over the destruction of vital gas infrastructure in the Middle East.  The weather pattern remains variable, but warmer days outnumber chilly days. The East starts off chilly this week, then turns warmer midweek ahead of the next cold front, which cools temperatures to below normal this weekend. This is followed by another warming trend next week.  Forward power prices for the 2027-2031 terms over the past week were unchanged, with a slight -1% price decrease for the balance of the year 2026.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $31.16/MWh or is -18% lower than February’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for March is $43.82/MWh or is   -30% lower than in last month.  In Michigan, the current month-to-date average is $39.75/MWh or is -25% lower than February, while in Ameren the March average is $31.68/MWh or is -27% lower than February’s average.
  • PJM Touts Progress on Interconnection Reforms; Identifies Obstacles to Project Completion - On 03/16, PJM published an article outlining its view that recent interconnection reforms - shifting from a “first-come, first-served” approach to a “first-ready, first-served” process - have improved how new generation projects move through its interconnection queue. PJM also identified permitting obstacles and broader project development challenges as key factors affecting project completion timelines. 
  • According to PJM, the revised process requires projects to be more mature in development and is intended to reduce delays by discouraging speculative applications.  PJM also notes that its updated “Cycle” process includes milestone requirements designed to improve queue discipline and move viable projects through the system more efficiently.  Under this framework, projects may be able to complete the interconnection process in roughly one to two years, depending on project impacts and required system upgrades.  The article states that PJM has completed interconnection agreements for 103 GW of projects since 2020, of which 23 GW have entered service.  Another 54 GW, however, remains delayed despite having cleared the interconnection process due to what PJM identified as challenges outside of PJM’s control.  PJM also highlighted its collaboration with Google and Tapestry, noting ongoing testing of a new AI-based tool, HyperQ, which is expected to streamline certain aspects of interconnection application evaluation.  PJM indicated it plans to share additional details as results are validated through continued analysis and benchmarking. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On March 16, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey issued executive order - No. 654: To Secure Massachusetts’ Energy Future by Establishing an Energy Supply Plan that Drives Affordability and Reliability.  In what is being referred to as the 10x10x10, Healey is setting new energy targets for Massachusetts to add 10 GW of new energy resources by 2035 with an estimated $10 billion in savings for residents and businesses.  The order directs state agencies to pursue an “all-of-the-above” energy supply mix - solar, wind, storage, load management/efficiency, gas, nuclear, and geothermal.  Key components of the 10 GW target include 4 GW of new in-state solar and 3.5 GW of demand reduction through strategies like energy efficiency, virtual power plants, and managed EV charging. The EO also affirms that the Everett Marine Terminal (EMT) is a strategic energy asset for Massachusetts and the New England region, capable of meeting up to ten percent of the region’s natural gas supply needs on the coldest days, and that maintaining gas storage and delivery capabilities, in general, are critical to meeting peak winter energy demand.  The EO directs the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) to take the several steps to review the adequacy and use of existing assets and opportunities in the region for natural gas and oil storage capacity and delivery capabilities to promote energy affordability and reliability. 
  • Alpha Generation has proposed repowering New York City’s 1970s-vintage, barge-mounted, Narrows and Gowanus plants - among the city’s highest-emitting units - with three new dual-fuel gas turbine barges totaling 819 megawatts and coupled with battery storage (up to 150 MW at Gowanus and 126 MW at Astoria) to address a forecasted reliability shortfall identified through Con Edison’s reliability planning process.  The company argues the project would provide a near-term “bridge” of dispatchable capacity while reducing emissions by roughly 50% versus existing units, with an eventual pathway to hydrogen fueling.  AlphaGen is seeking a long-term contract to facilitate project investment due to insufficient projected market revenues.  The proposal arrives amid heightened state concern about grid reliability and Governor Hochul’s signal of greater openness to repowering, yet it is likely to face opposition. AlphaGen’s proposal follows National Grid Ventures’ recent announcement that it is exploring repowering similar vintage units on Long Island.  

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The heat dome currently affecting the West, particularly California and the Desert Southwest has been exceptional. Our near neighbors, Las Vegas and Phoenix, had an impressive five-day streak (18th-22nd) of breaking not only daily records but monthly records as well. Sin City peaked at 97°, while Phoenix posted 105° on three consecutive days matching the all-time hottest temperatures this early in the season (prior earliest 105° is April 20). The Desert Southwest has recorded a triple-digit high temperature only four times since 1988, three occurrences happened in the past week, and the only prior instance was March 26, 1988. Back in California, the LA Basin as measured at the Burbank airport nudged right up to the century mark four days in a row but never crossed the line. San Francisco baked in the 90s, a level not ordinarily seen until late summer. Another hot week is on tap for the West as the ridge that continues to sit over the region strengthens once again. While temperatures aren’t expected to be as hot this week as they were last, many daily records are still expected to fall. Low 90s will be seen across SoCal through the week with plenty of 70s and 80s across the central valley and further north. The long lead forecasts suggest a milder start to April is in store along with an increase in storminess at times.
  • The natural gas system responded to this heat with a slight uptick in demand for power generation, though the overall system remains well stocked given the light calls on storage during the two weeks of winter weather the region experienced. While CAISO loads approached 35k MWs three days last week, SoCalGas only saw about 0.5 Bcf per day come out of inventory at the height of the heat wave, while PG&E was actually injecting during the event and ended the week with about 1 Bcf more in the tank than when it started. Spot prices were stable with SoCal city gate “popping” up to $2.42 MMBtu at the peak last week, while PG&E’s gate price couldn’t even crack $1.80. The aggressive tendencies of the state’s battery fleet to jump on the evening ramp in demand armed by cheap ammunition in the form of midday solar to charge, combining with the early arrival of snowmelt and hydro generation is limiting incremental burns by the fossil fleet despite the presence of summertime temps.
  • On the CAISO grid, the combination of record heat and surging renewables has been creating some wicked volatility in Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) and grid congestion. The binding S-to-N on Path 15 constraint has become a focal point, with the day-ahead auction printing double-digit spreads between NP15 and SP15 for three consecutive days. Last Friday, congestion peaked at a Q1 high of $34.71 per MWh, driving NP15 to $60.51 while SP15 remained anchored at $25.80. This price separation mirrors historical patterns from the pre-battery era, yet it is now occurring despite significant storage play, primarily during peak solar hours and the initial evening ramp. As demand is projected to wane with the cooler April forecast, the grid faces the challenge of absorbing excess generation. Can you say curtailments?
  • Yesterday, President Trump backed off from threatening to bomb energy assets in Iran and mentioned “cease fire” talks in a Truth social post; energy prices immediately plunged. Prices pared a significant portion of the drop a short time later after Iran denied there were any talks. Up and down oil and gas prices, volatile stock prices, violent moves in bond yields and gold prices… all part of the fog of war. Energy markets have been pitched in turmoil since the Iran conflict began not even four weeks ago. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar portion of its LNG supply. Headlines remain highly fluid, and volatility isn’t going away, prices will grind higher. As the energy expert in your company, have you discussed this with your management team yet? Your stakeholders?

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