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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of March 30, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month (May) natural gas settled at $2.89/MMbtu, down $.14, on Monday March 30.
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $2.89/MMbtu on Monday, March 23.
  • Prompt month (May) crude oil (WTI) settled at $102.88, up $3.24, on Monday, March 30.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $88.13/bbl., on Monday, March 23.
  • TTF (EU LNG) prompt settled at $18.48/MMbtu, up .$15, NBP (UK LNG) settled at 18.17/MMbtu, up $.04, and JKM (Asia LNG) settled at $20.53/MMbtu, up $.14 on Monday, March 30.  All of the primary global LNG price indices are down about $1/MMbtu from one week ago.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • The April weather outlook favors a "bearish of natural gas" outcome.  Mild temperatures with typical seasonal variablility favor weak demand to start the second quarter.
  • Natural gas storage inventories are ahead of the five year average, and importantly, the storage models are signalling that inventories will be adequate at the end of the injection season (October 31). Production is at an all-time high and 4.6 Bcf per day greater, year-to-date, than last year.
  • Demand, year-to-date is down slightly.  The supply/damand balance for the coming weeks favors the supply side.
  • Golden Pass LNG in Texas began producing LNG from the first of its three liquefaction trains on March 30, making it the 9th LNG export terminal to enter service. Initial LNG feedgas deliveries of .80 Bcf per day will be coming on line in the second quarter with an additional 1.6 Bcf per day coming on line by the end of the year.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • WTI settled at $102.88/Bbl., on Monday, March 30.  One week ago, prompt month WTI settled at $88.13.
  • Shipping traffic in the Straits of Hormuz is largely shut in with some small exceptions.  
  • Iran continues to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf with the Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salmi suffering damage while in anchorage in Dubai. 
  • Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi Rebels entered the conflict, further threatening shipping and widening the broader conflict.
  • Strategic petroleum reserve releases have commenced, but can only partially mitigate the lost supplies from the Persian Gulf and those measures have a limited shelf life.    
  • Extreme volatility remains.

Economy - Neutral

  • Inflation fears are front and center as rising oil and refined products prices present a major head wind to the economy. Transport, travel, petrochemicals, are all being affected by severe price increases to diesel, gasoline, aviation jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. 
  • The Conference Board reported consumer confidence ticked up in March to 91.8 from 91 in February, but expectations for jobs and income remained weak.
  • On April 4 the ADP national employment report will be released. April 5, initial jobless claims will be released. April 9, GDP advance estimate for Q1 will be released. A heightened amount of attention will be paid to the economic data over the coming days and weeks.

Weather - Neutral/Bearish

  • A burst of warmth in the East will clash with some colder air from the North and the Great Lakes Region will be very stormy.  This will bring severe weather across the Ohio valley and Northeast. Overall, the pattern remains warmer-than-normal across the eastern two thirds of the country, and given the time of year, this is a neutral/bearish-of-natural gas outlook with respect to weather.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending March 20 are 1,829 Bcf; a withdrawal of 54 Bcf was reported for the week ending March 20.
  • Gas inventories are 14 Bcf greater than the five-year average and 90 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Mar. 27, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Mar. 27, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices saw a slight increase for some of the near-terms, over the past week, but the market continues to be driven by bearish factors due to weather projections, despite the risks posed by the conflict in the Middle East.  April NYMEX natural gas futures closed out the prompt month higher Friday on position squaring and Iran war uncertainty, but it was unchanged week/week. The May’24 contract price fell sharply on Monday amid forecasts of warmer US temperatures, which could limit natural gas heating demand and boost storage levels.  The latest weather model run saw a double-digit heating demand loss, as much of the cold air remains bottled up in Canada. This also brought an increase in cooling demand across the southern tier.  A stronger cold front is expected to move across the eastern United States next week and cool the pattern to below normal, but the strongest cold air remains lurking in Canada. This is followed by a mild pattern as we move into the 11–15 day period under a broad national ridge.  Forward power prices for 2027-2028 were 1% higher over the past week, while the 2029-2031 terms were unchanged.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $47.72/MWh or -46% lower than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • PJM Resource Adequacy Initiatives and CIFP for Reliability Backstop - At the 3/25 Members Committee meeting, PJM reviewed major initiatives underway and identified its highest priorities for the remainder of 2026 and beyond.  PJM presented a timeline organized around six main workstreams:  (1) Reliability Backstop Procurement: After seven workshops with stakeholders, PJM will initiate an expedited Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) process upon release of its reliability backstop proposal on 4/10.  The CIFP process will proceed through May, with a FERC filing expected in June.  PJM plans to commence the procurement process by 9/30.  (2) Connect and Manage: A senior task force will begin formally working on this topic on 3/31.  PJM plans for work to conclude over the summer with a possible FERC filing by late September, and implementation targeted for late 2026.  (3) Large Load Additions - Load Forecasting:  PJM solicited feedback from stakeholders regarding the forecasting methodology documented in PJM’s Manual 19.  Methodology revisions are expected to be finalized in May with implementation in June for the 2027 load forecast.  PJM also plans to engage a vendor in April for parallel development of an independent load forecast, including data center forecasting. Both forecasts are expected at the end of the year or beginning of 2027.  (4) Expedited Interconnection Track: PJM filed its expedited interconnection proposal with FERC on 2/27.  Assuming FERC approval, corresponding manual changes and internal implementation work would continue with the goal of initiating the new interconnection option by late summer.  (5) Co-located Load Order: PJM has made its required compliance filings and a paper hearing on service terms and conditions will occur at FERC this spring.  PJM is considering additional stakeholder workshops and implementation work could continue into 2027 and beyond.  (6) Market Review: PJM is preparing a paper on broader market reforms expected in mid-April, after which a more formal stakeholder process would begin around June and continue through the end of the year culminating with a FERC filing.  The full breadth of the potential reforms remains unclear but could include changes to both the energy and capacity markets.  

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices saw a slight increase for some of the near-terms, over the past week, but the market continues to be driven by bearish factors due to weather projections, despite the risks posed by the conflict in the Middle East.  April NYMEX natural gas futures closed out the prompt month higher Friday on position squaring and Iran war uncertainty, but it was unchanged week/week. The May’24 contract price fell sharply on Monday amid forecasts of warmer US temperatures, which could limit natural gas heating demand and boost storage levels.  The latest weather model run saw a double-digit heating demand loss, as much of the cold air remains bottled up in Canada. This also brought an increase in cooling demand across the southern tier.  A stronger cold front is expected to move across the eastern United States next week and cool the pattern to below normal, but the strongest cold air remains lurking in Canada. This is followed by a mild pattern as we move into the 11–15 day period under a broad national ridge.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $29.48/MWh or -18% lower than February’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for March is $43.75/MWh or -31% lower than last month’s average.  In Michigan, the current month-to-date average price is $39.57/MWh or -26% lower than in February, while in Ameren the current March average is $31.05/MWh or -28% lower than February’s average.
  • PJM Resource Adequacy Initiatives and CIFP for Reliability Backstop - At the 3/25 Members Committee meeting, PJM reviewed major initiatives underway and identified its highest priorities for the remainder of 2026 and beyond.  PJM presented a timeline organized around six main workstreams:  (1) Reliability Backstop Procurement: After seven workshops with stakeholders, PJM will initiate an expedited Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) process upon release of its reliability backstop proposal on 4/10.  The CIFP process will proceed through May, with a FERC filing expected in June.  PJM plans to commence the procurement process by 9/30.  (2) Connect and Manage: A senior task force will begin formally working on this topic on 3/31.  PJM plans for work to conclude over the summer with a possible FERC filing by late September, and implementation targeted for late 2026.  (3) Large Load Additions - Load Forecasting:  PJM solicited feedback from stakeholders regarding the forecasting methodology documented in PJM’s Manual 19.  Methodology revisions are expected to be finalized in May with implementation in June for the 2027 load forecast.  PJM also plans to engage a vendor in April for parallel development of an independent load forecast, including data center forecasting. Both forecasts are expected at the end of the year or beginning of 2027.  (4) Expedited Interconnection Track: PJM filed its expedited interconnection proposal with FERC on 2/27.  Assuming FERC approval, corresponding manual changes and internal implementation work would continue with the goal of initiating the new interconnection option by late summer.  (5) Co-located Load Order: PJM has made its required compliance filings and a paper hearing on service terms and conditions will occur at FERC this spring.  PJM is considering additional stakeholder workshops and implementation work could continue into 2027 and beyond.  (6) Market Review: PJM is preparing a paper on broader market reforms expected in mid-April, after which a more formal stakeholder process would begin around June and continue through the end of the year culminating with a FERC filing.  The full breadth of the potential reforms remains unclear but could include changes to both the energy and capacity markets.  

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On March 26, Governor Kelly Ayotte (R) issued an executive order directing the state Department of Energy (NH DOE) to explore and advance the development of next-generation nuclear power as a reliable, cost-effective, and low-emission energy source.  Citing high electricity costs for residents, Ayotte said that “Granite Staters’ electric bills are way too high, and bringing next-generation nuclear power to our state will help expand our energy supply and bring down costs for families.”  The order instructs NH DOE to open a formal proceeding to assess several key issues related to the potential development of nuclear power in the state, including: 1) the ability and willingness of nuclear developers and investors to partner with regulated utilities or pursue independent development; 2) cost-recovery mechanisms that could protect ratepayers from risks associated with cost overruns or project delays; 3) the capacity and interest of regulated utilities to construct nuclear generation or support the buildout of related infrastructure; 4) federal, state, and local statutes, regulations, and ordinances that may hinder or facilitate new nuclear development in New Hampshire; 5) federal, state, local, and private financial and non-financial resources available to support nuclear development; and 6) strategies to increase the likelihood that new nuclear generation will be developed in the state. Ayotte directed NH DOE to invite members of the legislature’s energy committees to participate in the process.  The department is required to submit a preliminary roadmap to foster new nuclear generation in New Hampshire by late September, followed by a final report of its findings by March 2028.
  • The the Independent Power Producers of New York (IPPNY) released the results of a statewide poll showing broad dissatisfaction with major utility companies, with all receiving net-negative favorability ratings from customers.  Poll results showed 65% of respondents support competitive electricity markets and 79% want state policymakers to focus on increasing competition in the energy sector to provide more pricing options and a wider selection of energy sources.  Most respondents believe utility monopolies drive up electricity prices, with 42% indicating that monopoly utilities have the greatest impact on energy costs - more than any other factor included in the survey.  Mercury Public Affairs conducted the poll.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Like much of the month, the end of March is going out on hot note across the West with much to strong above normal temperatures encompassing much of the region today. While record breaking numbers aren’t in the cards today like they were over the last couple of weeks, highs will still be hot for this time of year and will be within a few degrees of the daily records; the LA Basin and Central Valley are set to post highs that reach the low-to-mid 80s while the Desert Southwest cities push into the 90s. This warm trend is expected to moderate briefly midweek as a cooling trough introduces seasonable temperatures and minor snow accumulations to the Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest. However, this cooling period appears fleeting; longer-range models suggest a quick rebound to above-normal temps by the weekend. The availability of “fuel” for the solar panels across the Southland will likely be suppressed today and tomorrow as cloud cover increases around the region.
  • The natural gas story is unchanged with robust storage levels and strategic midstream management. PG&E’s system enters the new month with significant inventory, aided by a deliberate reduction in transport volumes; flows through the Redwood compressor averaged approximately 1.13 Bcf/d at year-end, a notable drop from the ~1.7 Bcf/d seen in March 2025. This reduction of roughly 0.5 Bcf/d in average inflows is essential as molecule demand remains minimal heading into Q2 2026. In SoCal, long-term maintenance in the N Zone has facilitated a balanced system, with storage hovering near 91.0 Bcf for the past week. The spring doldrums started over a month ago in terms of daily settlements; gas delivered to PG&E’s city gate continues to print right around $1.60 per MMBtu while SoCal’s gate hangs tight in the low-$2.00s. SoCalGas continues to provide updates on the Line 225 maintenance work that looks like it will begin in May while the middle of April carries a planned outage at Aliso Canyon where the system will be shut in during the middle of the month.
  • For grid operators, the immediate focus remains on fluctuating renewable output, as cloud cover in SoCal is expected to suppress solar generation for the next couple of days, while wind generation across the Pacific Northwest remains largely subdued outside of a projected spike this Thursday. Prices have reflected these physical realities, with CAISO Day-Ahead auction results climbing during heavy load periods due to colder overnight lows and intermittent renewable dips. Price divergence remains a key theme: NP15 shifted up to $32.16 MWh for flow today, while SP15 lagged at $27.97, representing its highest settlement by far in over a week. With SoCal city gate trading for the day at $2.09 MMBtu, the marginal heat rate is barely crossing into the lower end of the gas stack. While the real-time market frequently dips into negative territory during midday solar peaks, the evening ramp continues to exhibit volatility; prices on Sunday evening spiked to $140 MWh.
  • While a brief window of precipitation is possible for the LA Basin, the overarching trend of March dryness is raising concerns regarding in-state hydroelectric availability for the summer and wildfires thereafter. April 1st is the traditional marking day for snowpack, and the Golden State is in awful shape. As of Monday’s report, California Snow Water Equivalents (SWE) has fallen off a cliff showing 18% of its April 1st average having dropped from the low-30% level ten days earlier. Conditions aren’t much better elsewhere in the West with Washington’s SWE at 55% of normal (63% last week), and Oregon falling to 16% (26% last week). At least the water supply at The Dalles dam, which is a good indicator of hydro generation that will eventually make its way south to NP15, saw a small gain to 101% of average for the April-September period.

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