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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of April 6, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month (May) natural gas settled at $2.81/MMbtu, up $.01, on Monday April 6.
  • Prompt month (May) natural gas settled at $2.89/MMbtu, on Monday March 30.
  • Prompt month (May) crude oil (WTI) settled at $115.67/bbl., up $3.28 on Monday, April 6.
  • Prompt month (May) crude oil (WTI) settled at $102.88, on Monday, March 30.
  • TTF (EU LNG) prompt settled at $16.95/MMbtu, down $0.01, NBP (UK LNG) settled at 16.79/MMbtu, down $.03, and JKM (Asia LNG) settled at $19.97/MMbtu, unchanged on Monday, April 6. 

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • The U.S. natural gas market has been very soft over the past several weeks pursuant to the  fortunate confluence of four dominant features:
  • 1) Low demand seasonality -- typical for this time of year, but even more favorable relative to the five-year average.
  • 2) Record production -- 110 plus Bcf per day (MTD), up approx. 5 Bcf per day (YOY).
  • 3) More than adequate storage inventory.
  • 4) The inability to put gas from the domestic market to the higher value LNG market as the nine operating export terminals are near maximum capacity.
  • Perspective -- last year, the April (2025) NYMEX contract settled at $3.95/MMbtu.  As of this writing, prompt gas is trading at $2.87/MMbtu, or about 25% lower than the same period last year.
  • The near-term weather outlook is supportive of current pricing action as cooler air is prevalent in the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through the weekend.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • WTI settled at $115.67/Bbl., up $3.28 on Monday, April 6; and that is up $26/bbl., from two weeks ago.
  • President Trump is threatening to attack Iran's electric power grid, bridges, and other critical infrastructure and has set a deadline for tonight at eight o'clock EST for a deal to be struck to cease hostilities and open the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Military strikes were reported on Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal, the most important Iranian oil hub where 90% of its crude oil export capacity flows.
  • Thus far, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has rejected U.S. terms that have been sent through Pakistani diplomatic channels.  The Administration has said it is negotiating with non-IRGC parties, however, there is no visibility as to whom those may be.
  • Extreme volatility and bullishness remain.

Economy - Neutral

  • U.S. payrolls rose by 178,000 in March and unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported; the Dow Jones consensus estimate was 59,000 jobs.
  • Wages rose less than expected with hourly earnings up 0.2% for the month and up 3.5% from a year ago.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sees inflation outlook in check, "no need to hike rates because of oil shock," CNBC reports.
  • AI-displaced workers could face long setbacks, a report published by Goldman Sachs finds.
  • Durable goods orders declined in February, down 1.4% from January.
  • The Trump administration said it would reshape its tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper products to simplify compliance.
  • The Trump administration announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals with levies of 100% on certain medicines.
  • U.S. mortgage rates increased for the fifth straight week with the average 30-year fixed mortage rate at 6.46%, up from 6.38% the previous week.
  • Inflation concerns continue to be front and center.

Weather - Neutral

  • Colder temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast will deliver some gains in residential/commercial demand for natural gas, but abating heat in the west will offset some cooling-degree demand as well.  The Eastern two thirds of the country warm up next week, but there will be some latent cool air in the Great Lakes region with storminess and variability.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending March 27 are 1,865 Bcf; an injection of 36 Bcf was reported for the week ending March 27.
  • Gas inventories are 54 Bcf greater than the five-year average and 96 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Apr. 2, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Apr. 2, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were lower on the week, as the market factored in a storage injection that was in line with expectations along with shoulder season demand expectations for April.  The Henry Hub May ’26 futures contract traded slightly higher on Monday, primarily driven by colder near-term weather and geopolitical news.  A cooling trough will be in charge over the eastern United States this week, with temperatures below to much below normal.  This will bring above to much above normal temperatures across the West.  The pattern starts to flip next week, with ridging, building over the Mid-continent and East and bringing warmth with this feature.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were -2% lower, on average, for the week and were unchanged over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $44.06/MWh or -8% lower than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • FERC Upholds PJM’s Cost Recovery for DOE 202(c) Order - On 4/2, FERC issued an order on rehearing, reaffirming its 12/5/25 order accepting PJM’s proposal to establish a regionwide cost allocation methodology for resources directed by DOE to remain in operation under the Federal Power Act section 202(c).  Rejecting arguments made by East Kentucky Power Cooperative and the Kentucky Attorney General, FERC continued to find that PJM’s methodology allocates costs roughly commensurate with benefits.  FERC also emphasized the clear division of authority under the statute: DOE alone determines whether an emergency exists and what actions are necessary, while FERC’s role is limited to approving compensation and cost allocation.  Under emergency conditions, FERC again concluded that all PJM Load Serving Entities benefit from the retention of generation that would otherwise retire and, therefore, a regionwide allocation based on capacity obligations is appropriate without individualized benefit showings, declining to consider alternative allocation methods.  This order confirms that PJM will have a defined and automatic mechanism for allocating costs incurred by resources that are required to remain in operation as the result of a DOE order under section 202(c).

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were lower on the week, as the market factored in a storage injection that was in line with expectations along with shoulder season demand expectations for April.  The Henry Hub May ’26 futures contract traded slightly higher on Monday, primarily driven by colder near-term weather and geopolitical news.  A cooling trough will be in charge over the eastern United States this week, with temperatures below to much below normal.  This will bring above to much above normal temperatures across the West.  The pattern starts to flip next week, with ridging, building over the Mid-continent and East and bringing warmth with this feature.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were -2% lower, on average, for the week and were unchanged on the month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $23.75/MWh or -19% lower than March’s preliminary final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for April thus far is $40.32/MWh or -8% lower than last month’s average.  In Michigan, the current month-to-date average price is $39.68/MWh or unchanged from March, while in Ameren the current index average price is $30.15/MWh or -3% lower than March’s preliminary final average.
  • FERC Upholds PJM’s Cost Recovery for DOE 202(c) Order - On 4/2, FERC issued an order on rehearing, reaffirming its 12/5/25 order accepting PJM’s proposal to establish a regionwide cost allocation methodology for resources directed by DOE to remain in operation under the Federal Power Act section 202(c).  Rejecting arguments made by East Kentucky Power Cooperative and the Kentucky Attorney General, FERC continued to find that PJM’s methodology allocates costs roughly commensurate with benefits.  FERC also emphasized the clear division of authority under the statute: DOE alone determines whether an emergency exists and what actions are necessary, while FERC’s role is limited to approving compensation and cost allocation.  Under emergency conditions, FERC again concluded that all PJM Load Serving Entities benefit from the retention of generation that would otherwise retire and, therefore, a regionwide allocation based on capacity obligations is appropriate without individualized benefit showings, declining to consider alternative allocation methods.  This order confirms that PJM will have a defined and automatic mechanism for allocating costs incurred by resources that are required to remain in operation as the result of a DOE order under section 202(c).

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On March 30, FERC accepted ISO-NE’s Capacity Auction Reforms – Prompt Deactivation proposal (CAR-PD), which represents the first of two FERC filings that significantly change the rules and design of the existing capacity market (i.e. Forward Capacity Market or FCM).  Among other things, CAR-PD replaces the FCM that was run approximately three years in advance of the capacity commitment period with a prompt auction that is run one month forward.  The ISO argued that the prompt auction design will provide significant benefits such as minimizing the uncertainty of load forecasts and eliminating phantom capacity by requiring all resources to be operational.  Additionally, CAR-PD changes the process for clearing capacity market offers to a sealed-bid format (discontinuing the descending clock auction format) and shortens the notification time for retiring resources.  Expected to be submitted late this year, the ISO’s second filing will propose seasonal capacity products as well as a marginal Effective Load Carrying Capability capacity accreditation process. FERC’s order also acknowledged that the ISO pledged to evaluate the accuracy of capacity supply offer mitigation.  
  • New York Governor Kathy Hochul and state lawmakers have missed the April 1 deadline to finalize the state budget amid disagreements over taxes, scaling back provisions of the state’s existing climate law and reforming car insurance regulations. Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking to revise New York’s landmark climate law, proposing to soften near‑term 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction requirements and add a new interim 2040 emissions‑reduction target that is non‑binding. The Hochul Administration continues to point to the high projected price tag of the proposed cap and invest program as a rationale for adjusting the law, while also signaling that talks include potential new funding for climate action. Alongside the 2040 target, Hochul is also advancing changes to the state’s emissions “accounting” approach, favoring the more widely accepted 100-year accounting methodology over New York’s already-adopted 20-year methodology that prioritizes immediate, rapid GHG reductions.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The lower left side of the map is facing a notable weather change heading into the weekend and the first half of next week as an upper-level low moves into the western U.S. It looks like it will enter California on Friday and move eastward toward the Four Corners region, bringing a shift away from the recent warmth, with temperatures across the Golden State and much of the West falling back to merely normal or even slightly below through early next week. In addition to cooler temperatures, the trough will bring moisture to California and the Desert Southwest, resulting in generally light rainfall and greater cloud cover —both adding downside risk to the temp forecasts. Wind generation remains muted in the near term, aside from a brief uptick in the Pacific Northwest, but becomes more favorable as the trough deepens over the weekend. Solar generation in Southern California should run near to above normal through midweek before falling apart given the unsettled weather pattern.
  • California’s natural gas market is settling into its typical early-April imbalance, where supply outpaces demand and excess volumes are directed into storage as prices struggle to maintain their footing. Daily index prices haven’t been above $2.00 per MMBtu in over a week and SoCal Border has been clearing under $1.00. Given that storage is beginning the refill season at elevated levels, it will quickly race towards capacity constraints. NorCal storage currently sits just under 160 Bcf – which is only modestly below (14 Bcf) typical mid-July targets – so let’s do some math: 16 Bcf divided by 0.5 per day = 32 days, meaning we could be at that level by the end of the first week of May (or thereabouts). Transport flows into the region are running near 1.8 Bcf/d. SoCal retains slightly more flexibility, though upcoming Aliso Canyon maintenance slated for the back half of the month will limit injection capability and keep molecules on the pipe. As solar really hits its stride in the spring, wind generation also leans towards the robust side of the spectrum, and a healthy Pacific Northwest hydro system suppresses power-sector gas burns, fundamentals continue to point toward storage pressure rather than incremental demand growth as Q2 unfolds.
  • The CAISO markets are feeling the full weight of robust renewable output combined with seasonally light loads. Record solar generation has pushed curtailments higher as battery storage reaches saturation, particularly when wind generation layers on top of strong midday solar profiles. These dynamics drove sharply lower day-ahead prices, with recent auctions seeing NP15 and SP15 clear in single-digit land for the peak periods, and the side of the highway is littered with negative prices if one looks at the individual hours. While near-term peak demand may inch higher towards the end of the week as the clouds thicken, the broader trend noted in the prior paragraph is one of abundant renewables for Q2. The resulting supply-heavy grid keeps curtailment risk elevated and limits upside for power prices. Beyond market impacts, the lack of snowpack elevates wildfire concerns statewide for this summer.
  • California will remain a nuclear state for the foreseeable future. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the 20 year license renewal for Diablo Canyon last week following a three year public review process that also included approvals from a variety of state agencies that no one would have seriously expected to oppose it. The renewal completes a process set in motion when state lawmakers passed and the Governor signed SB 846 in 2022, directing Diablo Canyon to continue operating through 2030 in response to statewide grid reliability concerns and a particular elected official’s presidential aspirations. The plant supplied roughly 10% of the state’s electricity and 16% of its zero-carbon power in 2024. While the federal license technically extends through 2044–2045, state law under SB 846 caps operations at 2030, and any extension beyond that date will require a separate vote by the California Legislature – a prospect that is expected to face heavy opposition from the anti-nuke crowd and other environmental groups citing proximity to earthquake faults along with the plant's heavy ocean water usage for cooling – but it will happen anyway.
  • “A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” was the uplifting headline that hit the wires this morning. Quoting the POTUS as he escalates threats that a deal be made before the deadline this evening, it follows reports that U.S. forces bombed a litany of targets on Kharg Island overnight. Oil prices continue to swing based on the tweet of the day, stocks remain skittish, bond yields and gold prices search for direction… all part of the fog of war. Energy markets have been pitched in turmoil since the Iran conflict began. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar amount of its LNG supply. Headlines remain highly fluid, and volatility isn’t going away, prices will grind higher. As the energy expert in your company, have you discussed this with your management team yet? Your stakeholders?

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