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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of November 17, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.36/MMbtu, down $.21 on Monday, November 17.
  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.33/MMbtu on Monday, November 10.
  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.27/MMbtu, two weeks ago (November 3).
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $59.91/bbl, down $.18 on Monday, November 17.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bullish

  • Above normal temperatures are forecast through the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. The "bullish sentiment" in the market is based on December forecasts continuing to favor a colder-than-normal outcome, and the forecasts are favoring cold momentum building into the second half of the month. 
  • There is a hard floor on prompt-month natural gas this week at $4 and a hard ceiling at $4.50.
  • The December 2025 contract expires next week.
  • Production is robust. Month-to-date gas production averaged 107.8 Bcf per day versus 100.6 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Storage is ample to start winter.
  • Demand for natural gas, year-over year for the month of November is up 6.5 Bcf per day, driven by rising LNG exports and increased residential and commercial demand.
  • The gas market will be highly sensitive to the weather forecasts. December is forecast to be colder-than-normal and January is currently forecast colder-than-normal.  If this holds, gas prices are very well supported at current levels with potential upside.  

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $59.91/bbl., on Monday, down $.18.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 crude oil forecast to $53.
  • Russian crude oil inventories are building as sanctions crimp exports.
  • President Trump said India has "largely stopped" buying Russian crude oil.

Economy - Neutral

  • The Trump Administration made moves to lower tariffs on beef, coffee and bananas among other comestibles.
  • The pace of U.S. construction spending increased in August, the latest data from the Census Bureau reports.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Manufacturing Activity Index rose eight points in November reflecting accelerating expansion of activity.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports that college graduates of the Class of 2026 will face headwinds in the job market.
  • The government will release a delayed jobs report this Thursday.

Weather - Neutral/Bullish

  • It will be warmer-than-normal in the eastern two thirds of the country through Thanksgiving and cooler in the west.
  • December forecasts call for a colder-than-normal outcome.
  • January forecasts call for a colder-than normal outcome.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending November 7 are 3,960 Bcf; an injection of 45 Bcf was reported for the week ending November 7.
  • Gas inventories are 172 Bcf above the five-year average and 6 Bcf less than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Nov. 14, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Nov. 14, 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices saw a slight rise over the past week as the market anticipated the coming of winter.  After rallying early last week due to cold temperatures and record LNG flows to the plants, the December natural gas futures faltered last Friday and Monday amid overbought conditions that were magnified by a seasonally stout storage increase.  Our weather model showed a heating demand loss over the weekend as the models came to better agreement on the evolution of the pattern. This brings stormy and chilly weather to the West with warmth in the Mid-Continent extending into the South and eventually to the East Coast. This pattern holds until the Thanksgiving holiday before we start to see colder air building in western Canada and moving down into the Mid-Continent and head eastward toward the end of the month.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were 1% higher, on average, week-over-week and 8% higher over the past month.  Most of the increases were seen on the front of the price curve for the 2026/27 terms.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $56.57/MWh, which is 11% higher than last month and 86% higher than a year ago.
  • PJM Responds to PA Senate Leaders’ Concerns Over Environmental Caucus Requests - On 11/10, PJM CEO Manu Asthana responded to a letter from select Pennsylvania Senate members by reaffirming that its top priority is maintaining grid reliability, noting ongoing concerns about resource adequacy as demand grows.    PJM’s response emphasizes the need for new generation of all fuel types, while acknowledging that each resource has different availability and reliability characteristics.  PJM cited the energy transition study series to highlight the continued importance of the thermal fleet for essential reliability services and noted the role of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) metrics in assessing resource contribution during peak system stress and points to the ELCC class ratings for the 27/28 Base Residual Auction (BRA).  PJM also notes the ongoing efforts through the Reliability Resource Initiative to expedite shovel-ready projects and address interconnection queue backlogs to respond to the concerns raised by the select senate members.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices saw a slight rise over the past week as the market anticipated the coming of winter.  After rallying early last week due to cold temperatures and record LNG flows to the plants, the December natural gas futures faltered last Friday and Monday amid overbought conditions that were magnified by a seasonally stout storage increase.  Our weather model showed a heating demand loss over the weekend as the models came to better agreement on the evolution of the pattern. This brings stormy and chilly weather to the West with warmth in the Mid-Continent extending into the South and eventually to the East Coast. This pattern holds until the Thanksgiving holiday before we start to see colder air building in western Canada and moving down into the Mid-Continent and head eastward toward the end of the month.  Forward power prices, for the 2026-2030 terms, were 1% higher over the past week and 8% higher over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement average in COMED is $36.97/MWh, which is 6% higher than last month, while the month-to-date average in AdHub is $49.35/MWh, or is only 1% higher than last month.  In Michigan those same prices are averaging $40.35/MWh or are 1% higher compared to October, while the prices in Ameren are averaging $35.63/MWh or are 1% higher as well.
  • PJM Responds to PA Senate Leaders’ Concerns Over Environmental Caucus Requests - On 11/10, PJM CEO Manu Asthana responded to a letter from select Pennsylvania Senate members by reaffirming that its top priority is maintaining grid reliability, noting ongoing concerns about resource adequacy as demand grows.    PJM’s response emphasizes the need for new generation of all fuel types, while acknowledging that each resource has different availability and reliability characteristics.  PJM cited the energy transition study series to highlight the continued importance of the thermal fleet for essential reliability services and noted the role of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) metrics in assessing resource contribution during peak system stress and points to the ELCC class ratings for the 27/28 Base Residual Auction (BRA).  PJM also notes the ongoing efforts through the Reliability Resource Initiative to expedite shovel-ready projects and address interconnection queue backlogs to respond to the concerns raised by the select senate members.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • At the November 12 & 13 ISO New England Markets Committee (MC) meeting, stakeholders recommended with 97.2% in favor that the Participants Committee approve ISO-NE’s proposed Capacity Auction Reforms – Prompt/Deactivation package (CAR-PD).  This includes tariff related changes to the capacity auction from a three-year forward market to a prompt market and decouples retirement decisions from the capacity auction, balancing reliability considerations with efficiency under the new deactivation notification process.  For the past 18 years, the ISO has administered the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) through annual auctions that secure resource commitments more than three years in advance.  After extensive stakeholder discussions and broad support, FERC approved the ISO’s proposal to delay Forward Capacity Auction 19 (FCA 19) to allow time for developing a prompt and seasonal market with accreditation reforms.  The CAR-PD proposal transitions the FCM to a prompt market, leveraging more current and accurate information to deliver stronger price signals.  This approach ensures the use of the latest load forecasts and provides participants with more representative asset values.  Additionally, requiring resources to be commercial before participating will mitigate risks of “phantom entry,” where capacity is sold but cannot be delivered.  The proposal also introduces a streamlined deactivation process, requiring resources that plan to exit the market to submit a formal notification.  By separating this process from market outcomes, participants will have access to more relevant market information before making decisions, fostering efficient and informed deactivations. The ISO’s proposal reflects robust stakeholder input and incorporates numerous suggested revisions. The proposed effective date is early March 2026, and the CAR-PD will serve as the foundation for the next phase of the CAR project addressing seasonal and accreditation reforms.
  • On November 13, the Massachusetts House Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy (TUE) Committee reported out their version of an omnibus energy bill, H.4744, An Act relative to energy affordability, clean power, and economic competitiveness. The bill focuses on energy affordability, procurements, and consumer protections. The bill establishes a new Division of Clean Energy Procurement within the Department of Energy Resources (DOER), shifting procurement authority from electric distribution companies to DOER.  This division is tasked with developing resource solicitation plans, administering competitive procurements for clean energy generation and energy services, and negotiating and managing contracts.  Additionally, the bill requires that at least 70% of Alternative Compliance Payments (ACPs) made under the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) be returned to ratepayers, rather than being fully deposited in the Mass CEC custodial fund for clean energy projects.  This change is intended to provide more direct financial relief to consumers.  Also included in the bill are modifications to annual RPS obligations and the elimination of the Alternative Portfolio Standard (APS) by 1/1/28, with a safe harbor for participants who have qualified or applied by that date.  Electric distribution companies (EDCs) and local distribution companies (LDCs) are authorized to procure energy supply (gas, electricity, transmission, transportation) via long-term contracts, subject to DPU review and approval for cost-effectiveness, safety, reliability, and mitigation of winter price spikes.  The bill also clarifies that default service supply can be procured through additional DPU-approved processes, and repeals the "Nuclear Power and Waste Disposal Voter Approval and Legislative Certification Act," which previously required statewide voter approval for new nuclear plants or waste facilities.
  • On 11/12, in a court filing, New York State announced the postponement of its All-Electric Buildings Act, requiring all new residential buildings under seven stories and commercial buildings under 100,000 square feet to be all-electric starting in January 2026. The law’s suspension will last at least 120 days after a federal appeals court decision, unless further appealed. Electrification of the New York economy has been a driver of the state’s growing grid reliability concerns, documented in the NYISO’s planning studies, who forecast reliability shortfalls in New York City as soon as next summer. The decision to suspend implementation disappointed some environmental advocates in the state, as the Hochul Administration also granted key permits for the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline on 11/14 and struck a settlement deal with the gas-powered Greenidge crypto mining operation. 

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • California had it all over the last seven days. From Santa Ana winds that brought highs in the 80 – 90s to SoCal at the start of the week, to the atmospheric river that cut the highs to the low 60s, caused flash flooding and brought heavy debris flows to burn areas by the end of the week. That same deep upper-level trough brought heavy snow to the Sierras, boosting the measly early season snowpack. Change is ahead due to a slower timing in the colder transition. California and the Southwest will remain cooler than normal and stormy this week while warmer than normal temperatures will dominate across the Rockies and up into the Pacific Northwest. Colder air looks to be in the cards across the state through the end of the month as coastal population centers are expected to remain near to below normal. The long-range models suggest the colder air sticks around into the first week of December then the pattern rewarms across California and the DSW.
  • Local gas distribution companies welcomed the first shot of cold weather across the region as a means to put molecules someplace other than storage. With storage caverns essentially packed to the brim, the arrival of ResCom heating demand and a reduction in solar generation triggering the need for thermal generation to kick in meant a near term end for high operational flow orders (OFOs) and low basis prices. Improved gas pipeline capacity this season combined with a power burn component that is diminished due to solar output by day and batteries by night, has put operators in a position in recent weeks of needing to call high OFOs to try and keep the gas grid in balance.
  • As storms isolated the midday block of hours last week and crushed solar generation the S to N congestion that had raged on the CAISO grid in day ahead index settlements were reduced to minimal levels. Consistent heavy cloud cover reduced solar output across SP15 while heating and power burn needs increased, lifting heat rates to the point where gas generation was in the money. Day ahead prices for the peak period in SP15 were pushed higher which reduced what had often been a $20 per MWh gap compared to NP15 prices in recent weeks. Sunday saw a slight shift in the forecast with skies that were to see moderate sunshine during midday hours so the constraint on the transmission system was back in play and the difference in hub averages returned to a double-digit discount for SP15. But flows for both Monday and today were reduced back to single digits as cooler temperatures and precipitation boosted the need for thermal generation again.
  • Federal policy changes have put offshore renewable energy development into a state of limbo, but California is undeterred and continues to push ahead with offshore siting and development plans along with building out the necessary port infrastructure. At a two-day workshop held by the California Energy Commission (CEC) last week, the offshore wind industry met resistance from the fishing community concerned about being displaced from their fishing grounds and processing facilities at the ports while engineers struggle with how to bring the electrons onshore in parts of the state lacking transmission infrastructure. The CEC allocated $42M for five offshore wind port projects in October, with the largest funding amount going to the City of Long Beach, which received $20M to map out a 400-acre offshore wind terminal at the Port of Long Beach. The most ambitious of these grants was $3M to the Port San Luis Harbor District to “mature” the design of an offshore wind operations and maintenance terminal. This means building a 3,000-foot-long pier into SLO Bay as the base for an offshore wind operations and maintenance facility. Expect environmental resistance on that one.

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