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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of March 9, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $3.12/MMbtu, down $.06 on Monday, March 9.
  • One week ago, prompt month (April) natural gas settled at $2.96/MMbtu.
  • Prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $94.77/bbl., up $3.87, on Monday, March 9.
  • One week ago, prompt month (April) crude oil (WTI) settled at $71.23/bbl.
  • As of this writing, prompt month WTI crude is trading at $87.77/bbl., down $7.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Week over week, demand for natural gas is down approx., 16 Bcf per day led by a steep decline in residential/commercial demand and easing power generation as near-term above normal temperatures reduce thermal load for homes and small businesses.  
  • The weather will shift to record heat in parts of the West and Southwest and a brief cold shot in the East.  Record heat in the Southwest will drive an increase in power-generation load for air conditioning and thermal/heating load in the East will get a short-lived boost from the cold shot. Near term, a reversal in the direction of declining gas demand is imminent, but not deep and not sustained.  
  • Production, month-to-date, averaged 110.2 Bcf per day versus 105.2 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Power generation, month-to-date, averaged 30.1 Bcf per day versus 27.4 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Res/Comm demand, month-to-date, averaged 26.5 Bcf per day versus 33.2 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • LNG exports, month-to-date, averaged 18.1 Bcf per day versus 15.6 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • Exports to Mexico, month-to-date, averaged 6.5 Bcf per day versus 6.1 Bcf per day; same period last year.
  • European LNG (TTF) (prompt month) settled at $19.17/MMbtu, and Asian LNG (JKM) (prompt month) settled at $16.32/MMbtu.
  • The domestic gas market remains well supplied.  Seasonal demand has fallen with warmer-than-normal weather through most of the country.  The weather becomes more variable this week giving some support on the demand side and LNG is a plank of support as well.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • The oil market will be extremely volatile and trade on breaking news hourly.
  • The Straits of Hormuz are still bottled up and oil, refined products, and LNG are not freely flowing.
  • 15 million barrels per day of crude, 5 million barrels per day of refined products, and 10 Bcf per day of LNG typically flow through the Straits.  
  • The Trump Administration said that opening the Straits is among the highest priority and has made several statements over the past 24 hours regarding the use of U.S. Naval assets taking formal control of and providing direct protection to shipping. 
  • The Administration eased sanctions on Russian crude oil imports by India and talked about further easing to allow Russian crude to get to market.
  • As of this writing, WTI crude oil is trading at $84.01/bbl., down $10.76.

Economy - Neutral

  • The February jobs report showed a 92,000 loss; expectations were for 50,000 jobs gained.
  • Unemployment rose from 4.3% to 4.4%.
  • Gasoline prices are up 19% on average across the country over the past two weeks.
  • Q4, 2025 GDP was weak at 1.4% annualized, while Q3 productivity was revised upward to 5.2% and Q4, 2025 productivity was 2.8% annualized.
  • GDP weakened in the fourth quarter of last year while productivity was relatively strong.  Output per worker increased, unit labor costs were contained, and this generally helps keep inflation in check.  Rising gasoline and diesel prices are a headwind. 

Weather - Neutral

  • Warm air in the south and east will clash with cooler air from the North as storm energy in the Southwest moves over the Mid-Continent.  This will result in a large area of severe weather stretching from Texas to the Great Lakes. Later this week, the warmth in the East will subside and a short-lived winter-like cold shot is in the cards.  Next week the pattern becomes more amplified with record heat in the West and Southwest, with temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark.  So some early air conditioning load will present itself along with some heating demand in the East.  However, the lower Midwest and the Southeast will be seasonal/warm, and there will be some offset to hot air in the west and the brief cold shot in the east relative to energy demand.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending February 27 are 1,886 Bcf; a withdrawal of 132 Bcf was reported for the week ending February 27.
  • Gas inventories are 43 Bcf less than the five-year average and 115 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Mar. 6, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Mar. 6, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were higher over the past week along with natural gas prices, which found some support from the concerns around supply disruptions of energy in the Middle East.  April’26 NYMEX natural gas futures climbed Friday as escalating Middle East tensions and global energy price jumps offset weakening fundamentals in the US for Spring.  The East Coast has finally warmed above normal, but a mid-week cold front will bring severe weather to the Mid-continent and return the East to near-normal temperatures later in the week. The forecast calls for warmth over the weekend ahead of a stronger cold front that will usher in much below-normal temperatures to the eastern United States early next week. Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms over the past week were 5% higher, on average, with the balance of 2026, 11% higher and Cal’27, 5% higher.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $43.29/MWh or -51% lower than February’s final settlement price.
  • PJM Conducts Last Two Backstop Workshops; Introduces Backstop Design Components - PJM conducted the last two backstop workshops last week before beginning a five-week hiatus during which PJM will develop its backstop auction proposal.  Board members and staff as well as stakeholders and representatives from stated PUCs, governors’ offices and FERC participated in the meetings.  On 3/5, PJM provided a presentation that reviewed stakeholder feedback on the workshops and updated PJM’s thinking on possible design components.  They also discussed its evolving thinking on any backstop reliability auction, in which they envision a one-time auction that would procure near term needs through potentially the 2030/31 Delivery Year.  PJM continues to target September for opening the procurement bidding window, with the overall evaluation process expected to take several months. PJM is anticipating a five-week break and expects to post its proposal on or around 4/10 and is targeting a May filing at FERC. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were higher over the past week along with natural gas prices, which found support from the concerns around supply disruptions of energy in the Middle East.  April’26 NYMEX natural gas futures climbed Friday as escalating Middle East tensions and global energy price jumps offset weakening fundamentals in the US for Spring.  The East Coast has finally warmed above normal, but a mid-week cold front will bring severe weather to the Mid-continent and return the East to near-normal temperatures later in the week. The forecast calls for warmth over the weekend ahead of a stronger cold front that will usher in much below-normal temperatures to the eastern United States early next week. Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms over the past week were 4% higher, on average, with the balance of 2026, 9% higher and the remaining terms 2% higher.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED thus far is $29.38/MWh or -23% lower than February’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price in March is $39.48/MWh or -37% lower than in last month.  In Michigan, the current month-to-date average is $38.90/MWh or -27% lower than February, while in Ameren that price for March is $31.65/MWh and also -27% lower than last month’s average.
  • PJM Conducts Last Two Backstop Workshops; Introduces Backstop Design Components - PJM conducted the last two backstop workshops last week before beginning a five-week hiatus during which PJM will develop its backstop auction proposal.  Board members and staff as well as stakeholders and representatives from stated PUCs, governors’ offices and FERC participated in the meetings.  On 3/5, PJM provided a presentation that reviewed stakeholder feedback on the workshops and updated PJM’s thinking on possible design components.  They also discussed its evolving thinking on any backstop reliability auction, in which they envision a one-time auction that would procure near term needs through potentially the 2030/31 Delivery Year.  PJM continues to target September for opening the procurement bidding window, with the overall evaluation process expected to take several months. PJM is anticipating a five-week break and expects to post its proposal on or around 4/10 and is targeting a May filing at FERC. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • The New England annually develops 10-year forecasts of energy and demand that are published as part of the Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT) report.  The draft forecasts show lower net energy and slower peak demand growth compared to CELT 2025, driven primarily by reduced electrification forecasts for electric vehicles and heat pumps. Summer Net Peak forecast shows a slight (~0.3%) near-term year-on-year increase driven by base load modeling recalibration, but a longer-term decline (beginning in 2029) due to reduced electrification forecasts (~-1.3%); and Winter Net Peak forecast shows a modest near-term increase (~0.6%), but more importantly shows a significantly slower pace longer-term (~-2.1%, beginning 2030) due largely to reduced heating electrification expectations.  Thus, the previously forecasted transition to a ‘winter peaking system’ before 2035 now seems highly unlikely. The ISO will also be enhancing the forecast by more closely considering behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems, a new Large Load Forecast component (~400MW), and an updated behind-the-meter PV forecast.  The ISO commented that while there are currently few ‘large loads’ in New England at this time (relative to other RTOs/ISOs) they are being proactive incorporating this new component in the forecast development.  These refinements were not included in the draft forecasts shared with stakeholders but will be included in the updated forecast at the next committee meeting on 3/27.
  • On February 26, the House passed H.5151, the House Ways & Means Committee redraft of H.4744, the energy omnibus bill that was reported favorably out of the House Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy Committee in November 2025.  To address affordability, the bill returns 70% of the Alternative Compliance Payments (ACPs) under the state’s clean energy standard to ratepayers.  It also requires that 70% of ACPs will be returned to ratepayers in any future years where the funds from ACPs exceed the predicted level by 2% and costs are a substantial burden for ratepayers.  The bill pares back the state’s energy efficiency program, Mass Save, by cutting $18 million, prioritizing cuts in marketing, advertising, and administration.  The bill also removes the provisions from H.4744 which would have changed the state’s mandatory climate goals to aspirational targets and would have delayed increases in the Clean Energy Standard obligations.
  • On 2/27, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) released an internal cost analysis  indicating that implementing the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act as currently written would result in substantial cost increases for households, businesses, and manufacturers - particularly if compliance is achieved through a cap-and-trade - style system.  The analysis projects that carbon prices will begin at $120 per ton and rise to nearly $180 per ton, which is more than six times higher than recent market prices in California (under $28 per ton).  These elevated carbon prices are expected to drive significant downstream cost increases across the economy. By 2031, the program could increase gasoline prices by $2.23 per gallon, with moderate-income upstate households owning two gas vehicles and relying on oil heat facing more than $4,000 annually in added energy costs, even after accounting for rebates.  While the program could potentially generate approximately $28 billion in annual revenue, the memo concludes that the current emissions accounting framework and the rigid 2030 reduction target outlined in the law would impose “unpalatable” near-term costs on businesses and consumers.  This raises concerns regarding competitiveness, investment, and employment unless statutory modifications are introduced. New York's cap-and-invest program is currently being challenged in court after Governor Hochul paused the initiative in 2025, citing the need for further emissions data and affordability evaluations before establishing firm regulatory obligations. 
  • National Grid Ventures is evaluating options to repower its aging fleet of fossil fuel power plants on Long Island as reliability concerns grow amid rising electricity demand and delays in offshore wind development.  Many of the units, built in the 1960s and 1970s, remain critical to grid stability, as demonstrated during recent winter cold snaps, yet their age increases operational risk over time.  While New York’s climate law requires a zero-emission electric grid by 2040, the Hochul Administration is pursuing an “all of the above” strategy that includes an openness to limited repowering to maintain reliability, even as regulatory uncertainty continues to deter investment.  National Grid Ventures argues that clearer policy guidance is needed to advance any development, noting that repowering could proceed alongside existing operations and may remain economically viable with or without new gas pipeline capacity.  As the Long Island Power Authority begins its integrated resource planning process, repowering remains one of several options under consideration to ensure reliable and cost-effective electric service for Long Island ratepayers.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Unseasonably warm conditions continue to dominate California and the broader Western U.S., reinforcing what is looking like one of the warmest July March periods on record. Forecasts over the weekend trended even hotter, particularly across Southern California and the Desert Southwest, where summer‑like temperatures are expected to intensify through the end of the week and into next. Our favorite LA Basin reference point (Burbank) is projected to reach the low 90s on Thursday – Friday, levels that would tie or come within a degree of long‑standing record highs. Reinforcing that winter is over, a strengthening upper‑level ridge is poised to expand across the West next week, supporting additional record‑challenging heat and potentially delivering Phoenix its first 100°F reading of the year, just in time for St. Patrick’s Day. While the Pacific Northwest will see a brief spell of cooler, stormier weather accompanied by strong winds, California’s pattern remains largely dry and mild.
  • Mild temperatures and strong renewable output continue to suppress natural gas demand across the Golden State, keeping regional cash prices under notable pressure. What qualifies as “cold” at this point in the season are overnight lows in the 30s and 40s across the Pacific Northwest and far northern California—temperatures that help absorb incremental supply but remain insufficient to materially lift power‑sector gas burns within the state. PG&E city gate has not cleared above $1.60/MMBtu in more than a week, while SoCal city gate has hovered just above $2.00/MMBtu since the beginning of the month. At the SoCal Border, weekend packages fell to $0.94/MMBtu, underscoring the depth of the oversupply. The real‑time power environment continues to reflect this imbalance, with midday curtailments frequently required to manage excess renewable output while batteries and hydro resources manage the evening ramp. With storage levels elevated in both PG&E and SoCalGas territories, the system increasingly needs incremental load to avoid early‑season injections, particularly in the north where hydro shaping and imports are further reducing gas‑fired gen opportunities.
  • The CAISO power market remains heavily influenced by abundant solar, especially in SP15 where clear skies and lengthening daylight hours have driven down both day‑ahead and real‑time settlements. Over the weekend, NP15 and SP15 both struggled to clear meaningful positive prices, with Monday’s day‑ahead auction showing NP15 at $17.09/MWh while SP15 remained in single digits at $7.53/MWh. Real‑time midday prices have routinely fallen below $30/MWh during peak charging hours, improving battery economics but further compressing thermal margins. Daily peak‑hour prices across both major hubs settled in the single digits through the weekend, while off‑peak averages hovered in the low $20s per MWh. Midday intervals continue to settle below the $0 MWh waterline as solar swamps the grid, prompting curtailments. Looking ahead, the persistence of strong solar output—now extended deeper into the day with daylight savings and as the sunlight increases by a couple mins each day—suggests continued downward pressure on prices unless meaningful load growth or weather‑driven demand materializes.
  • We wrote this last week, it still applies. While the fundamentals of the West are in the buyer’s favor today, do not look past the turmoil unfolding in the Middle East. The conflict in Iran is sparking the biggest disruption to oil and natural gas markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Qatar shut the world’s largest LNG export facility over the weekend, Saudi has suspended operations at its biggest oil refinery and tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has all but halted. As development of U.S. LNG export capability has ramped over the last decade, our prices – even those in California – will be increasingly sensitive to international events. Heads up.

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